Project
Rethinking Resources: Critical Minerals for the Energy Transition as Pathways to Social Equity and Local Growth
Research Project
Overview
This project examines how social equity can be embedded into critical mineral extraction, a key enabler of the renewable energy transition. Using systems mapping and strategic foresight, it challenges extractive models that risk reproducing colonial power dynamics—particularly in the Global South—and explores more just, sustainable futures.
Problem Space
The clean energy transition has increased demand for minerals like lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper, often at the expense of Indigenous rights, local livelihoods, and environmental justice. Current extraction systems prioritize scale and speed over equity, creating a false choice between climate action and social responsibility.
Solution
The project proposes “Thriving Within Limits” as a preferred future, reframing extraction as a needs-based, equity-driven system. By intervening across key leverage points—governance, incentives, and power structures—it highlights pathways for a just and inclusive energy transition beyond technological fixes.
"Social equity is a systems outcome, not a byproduct of clean technology."
Process
The transition to renewable energy, like an aging power grid, cannot simply be rebuilt from scratch. It must be carefully unlocked, restructured, and rerouted to distribute power more equitably.  For our research, we used a combination of methods and tools from disciplines including systems thinking and strategic foresight.  Our project follows a design thinking process structured to move from problem discovery (Discover) to opportunity framing (Define), and from ideation (Develop) to intervention design (Deliver). Each stage through its journey contributed to building an equity-first understanding of the critical minerals landscape.  
Final research question:
How can policy frameworks be shaped over the (25 years) for countries rich in critical minerals in driving a just energy transition while prioritizing social equity?    
Actors Map
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World Scenarios World Scenarios World Scenarios
Continued Growth: Growth at all Costs
In 2050, growth at all costs, the business-as-usual scenario is where fossil fuels remain dominant in energy-intensive economies.  Despite high costs and limited support, oil and gas companies leverage their competitive advantages and control the gradual increase in renewable adoption for profits.  Carbon-dependent economic systems benefit elites while multinationals practice "green capitalism." Oil and gas companies expand under the decarbonization pretense with strong lobbying influence. Energy security remains unstable and dependent on vulnerable supply chains as nations miss net-zero targets. Geopolitical alliances form on self-interest rather than climate cooperation. Consumers struggle between ethical products and affordability. Renewables are largely viewed for profit gains by lobbyists and oil and gas companies as they expand their control over critical minerals through their strategic positioning and access to finance.  Unmitigated climate change triggers cascading effects: intensifying social and economic disasters, chronic supply chain disruptions, land displacement, and significant loss of productivity. Hence, the focus is on climate adaptation and reducing environmental consequences under the pretense of a “green economy”. 
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Collapse: Race for the Green Dollar
By 2050, corporate interests have captured the environmental movement, transforming green technology into wealth accumulation rather than planetary healing. Multinational corporations monopolize renewable energy markets, limiting true sustainability progress while greenflation concentrates power among global elites. The ultra-wealthy reframe environmental crisis as opportunity through "green extractivism" – resource acquisition disguised as building a sustainable world. This masks continued exploitation of natural resources and vulnerable communities. Geopolitical tensions between China and Western powers over critical minerals create international instability, making climate cooperation nearly impossible. In this volatile landscape, vulnerable communities and mining workers face perpetual danger. Without strong regulations, exploitation flourishes under the cynical banner of the "race for the green dollar," offering sustainability's appearance while delivering minimal environmental benefit.
Preferred Future
Disciplined: "Thriving within limits"
This scenario explores the question “what ought” to happen to create the most promising conditions favourable scenario in the favour of embedding social equity in the global transition to renewable energy? It envisions a future that support vulnerable communities and mining workers while in a regulated economy that is coalition-based, a need-driven demand based. It represents a baseline scenario; Oil and Gas companies hold power and influence which has shifted to governments in “Thriving within limits”. This shift has largely shaped how markets, consumers, vulnerable communities, and mining workers will enjoy regulated policy and reporting standards, benefiting these groups.
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Transformation: Circularity-Driven Future 
Transformation: Set in 2050, this is a Circularity Driven scenario which represents a transformation of global energy systems and economic models built around circular economy principles, prioritizing resource conservation, regeneration, and sustainable knowledge transfer. This scenario falls under the transformative pathway with higher adoption, regulated adaptation, and knowledge-based circular economy that's less energy-dependent than previous economic models. There is higher adoption of RETs because of increased climate finance which has led to increased but regulated CRMs mining.  Consumers sentiments are based on strong ethical sourcing practices and climate conscious perspective.  
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Pathways to Socially Just Mineral Extraction
This section identifies key leverage points where policy and system-level interventions can shift critical mineral extraction toward social equity. Grounded in foresight and systems analysis, the pathways focus on the preferred future—Thriving Within Limits—to move beyond extractive, inequitable models.
Series of intervention points ranked from least effective (12) to most powerful (1), represented as a lever with increasing leverage as you move upward.
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Rather than relying on technological fixes alone, this project proposes a systems-level redesign of critical mineral extraction to embed social equity into the energy transition. Using strategic foresight and leverage point analysis, the research identifies where targeted interventions can shift extraction practices toward fairer outcomes.
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The preferred future, Thriving Within Limits, reframes extraction as needs-based and equity-led, prioritizing shared value over unlimited growth. The solution focuses on coordinated action across five key leverage areas:
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Paradigm shifts — redefining extraction as a means to support wellbeing, not just supply demand
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System goals — prioritizing equitable benefit distribution and long-term resilience
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Structural reorganization — redistributing power across value chains and governance systems
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Rule changes — strengthening consent, accountability, and benefit-sharing mechanisms
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Feedback mechanisms — ensuring communities directly benefit and harms are visible and addressed
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Together, these pathways shift communities from cost-bearers to decision-makers, enabling a just and inclusive energy transition that transforms underlying power dynamics—not just technologies.
Find full report below here